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In the latest World Economic Outlook, the World Bank (WB) keeps its forecast for world economic growth this year and next, but warns there are still many risks that could be expected.
Keep up the growth of the world
In the latest World Economic Outlook, the World Bank (WB) keeps its forecast for world economic growth this year and next, but warns there are still many risks that could be expected. impact on the global economy. Specifically, the world economy will grow 3.1% this year and 3% by 2019. In general, the global economy has maintained a "healthy" state in the next few years.
Growth in developed countries is projected to be 2.2% in 2018 before easing to 2% in 2019, amid the central bank's gradual withdrawal of stimulus programs. economy. Meanwhile, growth in emerging markets and developing economies is expected to grow at 4.5% this year, after which it will rise to 4.7% in 2019. The World Bank forecasts the US economy will grow by 2.7% in 2018 with the support of President Donald Trump's tax cuts, which will then ease to 2.5% next year.
The world economy will grow by 3.1% this year
The Eurozone economy is forecast to grow 2.1% this year before easing to 1.7% in 2019. The World Bank is also warning that global economic growth is on track. face with many risks, including the risk of escalating trade disputes. According to the World Bank, financial markets are likely to experience strong turbulence, while some emerging markets and developing economies are also more vulnerable. In addition, the trend of trade protection is also increasing, along with the uncertainty in geopolitical policy and risk that will affect the momentum of global economic growth.
"If we maintain the strong growth seen this year, millions of people will be able to get out of poverty, especially in fast growing South Asian countries," said Jim Yong Kim, chairman of the World Bank Group. "But growth is not enough to tackle extreme poverty in some parts of the world. Policymakers need to find ways to sustain long-term growth by increasing productivity and creating more jobs to accelerate the eradication of poverty and promote shared prosperity. "
On trade policy, the WB said the outcome of some talks is still uncertain and the escalation risk of trade disputes has increased. The Bank's outlook in the context of the new US tariff policy last week led to a retaliatory response from its key trading partners.
In addition, the World Bank report forecasts that oil prices will rise sharply by 32.6% this year, then fall by 1.4% in 2019. Without calculating energy prices, global commodity prices are expected to rise. 5.1% this year but only edged up 0.2% next year.
Vietnam's growth forecast
According to the report, the strong recovery in export activities after two years of weakening will help promote economic growth of Vietnam. This year, Vietnam's growth is forecast at 6.8%. The growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 is 6.6% and 6.5%, respectively.
Vietnam has maintained steady growth and prospects for attracting foreign investment
However, in the medium term, economic growth is expected to decline, only around 6.6% and 6.5% for 2019 and 2020. This result is due to the strong support of agriculture and export-oriented production. FDI inflows will continue to be strong, supported by growth prospects and policy efforts to attract foreign investment. Earlier, in the East Asia and Pacific Economic Update report released in April, WB noted that Vietnam's economic growth is expected to stabilize around 6.5%
[Source: Kinhtevadubao.vn]
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